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For those who have very recently come across the information presented by “Billy” Eduard Albert Meier, an interesting journey lies ahead from just gathering the information on all aspects of the case to finally coming to a conclusion about the authenticity of the case. The goal of this article is to make the journey simpler – by putting forward three questions to the readers, which when answered AFTER reading about all the aspects of the case, and answered honestly, should give a nearly fair evaluation of authenticity of the case.

So, those who have never ever met Billy Meier let alone any Plejaren – how it is possible to come to the eventual conclusion that the Billy Meier case is authentic?

Let us assume for a moment that Billy Meier is an expert hoaxer and like a professional fiction-writer he has built an entire fictional world for his story; and that Billy Meier’s fictional world is inhabited by the  Plejaren and Baawi, Lyran and Vegan characters, and accompanied with cooked up historical tales, and spiritual teaching meant to sell books, just like J.R.R. Tolkien’s imaginary world for the Lord of the Rings trilogy, inhabited by hobbits and men, elves and dwarves and fascinating tales of imaginary Middle Earth. The difference between an author creating characters and making up stories and Billy Meier telling us about other civilizations is three-fold:

<blockquote>A. The circumstantial and physical evidences.<br />
B. The prophetic information, or the prophecies and predictions.<br />
C. The spiritual information.
</blockquote>

==The Evidences==

===Photographs===

#Could the photographs<ref>http://www.futureofmankind.co.uk/Billy_Meier/Photographic_Evidence</ref> present in copyrighted books published before the age of personal computers be made in such a way, that even today, they  cannot be duplicated (at least without computers), and then compared head to head?
#What is the probability that favorable photo analyses by people like Jim Dilettoso, Neil Davies, Jun-Ichi Yaoi (Nippon TV) and Design Technology (contractor for NASA) was due to them been fooled by Billy Meier’s photo simultaneously? 
#What fraction of alleged UFO-contactees has provided pictures for similar scientific analysis? 

===Videos===

#Could the videos<ref>http://www.futureofmankind.co.uk/Billy_Meier/Video_Evidence</ref><ref>http://www.futureofmankind.co.uk/Billy_Meier/Scientific_Experts%27_Comments_on_Meier%27s_Evidence</ref> made before the age of personal computers be faked in a manner such that there is not even 1 accomplice? 
#What is the probability that favorable video analyses were the conclusions of people like Jun-Ichi Yaoi (Nippon TV), Volker Engel and Marc Weigert (the latter two from Uncharted Territory, and won Academy Awards for special effects in “Independence Day”), and what is the probability that these independent favorable analyses happened due to Billy Meier being able to fool all of them?
#What fraction of alleged UFO-contactees has provided videos for similar scientific analysis?

Most, if not all of those who investigated Billy Meier’s photos and videos were either made to sign their report, or have given their account in  front of video camera, or have had their analysis published in  copyrighted book(s).

===Sound Recordings===

#Sound  analyses<ref>http://www.futureofmankind.co.uk/Billy_Meier/Beamship_Sounds</ref> were done by sound engineers from Excalibur Studio, Peter Gimer  and Rick Coupland of Micor, undersea sound technician Robin L. Shellman  and at Naval Undersea Sound Center at Connecticut revealed that the sound samples were a) not synthesized and b) not matching any known  source on earth. Is it possible for someone without access to either a)  classified military technology, or, b) real extraterrestrial craft  sound, to fool the above experts?
#What fraction of alleged UFO-contactees has provided sounds for similar scientific analysis?

===The Metal Samples===

#Marcel  Vogel, an eminent, multi-patent holder scientist from IBM, famous for  his work in the areas of crystals, electroluminescence and computer  magnetic disks, examined the metal samples provided by Billy Meier and  concluded that those could not be made by technologies available on  earth<ref>http://www.futureofmankind.co.uk/Billy_Meier/The_Metal_Alloy</ref>. He had gone on record in video, in radio interviews and in his  report declaring the result of his analysis. Is it possible for someone  without access to either a) classified military technology, or, b) real  extraterrestrial source to fool someone like Marcel Vogel? 
#What fraction of alleged UFO-contactees has provided other-worldly samples for similar scientific analysis?

===Eyewitness Testimonies===

#Between  1962 and 2010 there were over 120 known witnesses to various types of  events that corroborate, verify, enforce and prove the authenticity of  Billy Meier's experiences<ref>http://www.futureofmankind.co.uk/Billy_Meier/The_Witnesses</ref>. 15 of those witnesses were subjected to lie  detector tests, and all of them passed. Was it possible for multiple  witnesses to fool the lie detector test at the same time?
#What  chance did Billy Meier and Phobol Cheng (a retired U.N. diplomat from  Cambodia) have in successfully fooling an expert from the U.S. Army, who  has been trained to pick up lies by observing body language?
#What  fraction of alleged so-called UFO-contactees could muster eyewitness  testimonies that were examined through a lie detector machine? 

Even  Billy Meier’s ex-wife, Kalliope Meier passed a lie detector test. Now,  away from lie detector machines and after a divorce she claims that Billy  Meier has been a hoaxer! Which of her accounts is to be taken as  truthful?
There  are other evidences presented by Meier, like the landing tacks and  impression of a 6-fingered ET on a car bonnet: evidences that were seen  and verified by investigators, but scientific analysis were not  extensively documented.

<blockquote style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;   text-align:center; background-color: #FFFFFF; border: none; width:500px;font: italic normal normal 16px/22px Georgia,   serif;">
'''Q1)  Considering the above answers, are you convinced that  Billy Meier is  really having contact with beings from another planet,  or at least  beings from a technically advanced civilization?'''
</blockquote>
<br style="clear:both" />

===Prophecies===

Not  re-winding back too far down the memory lane, just in the last 3 years,  there have been at least 3 predictions/prophecies<ref>http://www.futureofmankind.co.uk/Billy_Meier/Prophecies_and_Predictions</ref><ref>http://www.theyfly.com/Prophecies_Predictions.html</ref> previously made by  Billy Meier or his alleged extraterrestrial friend(s) that have come  true:

*From 59th contact: talk of existence of water on Mars.
**Date of contact: 8th July 1976
**First translated in English: unknown
**First published: 1993 in Message from Pleiades Vol. 3 (ISBN: 978-0934269285)
**Confirmed: 31st July 2008 by NASA<ref>http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5gaS-wTcmNV0JAAVH7BZhjpiDjasQ</ref>
*From 469th contact: talk of  petroleum companies, including those of Saudi Arabia, concealing exceeding capacity (peak oil theory)
**Date of contact: 11th August 2008
**First translated in English: 8th February 2009
**First published: 22nd February 2009 in The Future Of Mankind website.
**Confirmed: Two of US Embassy cable sent on 7th May 2006 and 10th December 2007, published by Wikileaks on 8th  February 2010, titled “US concern over Saudi Arabia oil production” and  “Saudi oil company oversold ability to increase production, embassy  told” respectively.
*From 220th contact: talk of how earth’s gravitational pull distorted moon.
**Date of contact: 2nd December 1987
**First translated into English: 31st May 2010
**First published: November 2004 in German (latest version of Plejadisch-plejarische Kontakberichte, Gespräche, Block 5) and 31st May 2010 in English in The Future Of Mankind website.
**Confirmed: 12th November 2010 by NASA<ref>http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-11730754</ref>

In  an ongoing development, scientists and researcher from Arizona State  University concluded in March 2011, that chemicals from meteorite  “seeded” earth with elements necessary for life. Until now, it has only  been a theory. Watch out for further scientific support from other  Universities and the scientific community in support of this theory  being fact, i.e. meteors seeding planets with micro-organism as declared  in Contact Report 224 and first published November 2004 in German in  the latest version of Plejadisch-plejarische Kontakberichte, Gespräche,  Block 5 and in English in December 2005 in the now defunct site  gaiaguys.net.

#What  is the probability of picking up the above 3 random subjects and making  random prophecies/predictions, only for those to come true? 
#If  one considers the quantum of all the prophetic information published in  copyrighted books which have fulfilled AFTER the publication of those  books, then what is the probability of picking up a multitude of  subjects and making random prophecies/predictions, only for those to  come true? 

<blockquote style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;    text-align:center; background-color: #FFFFFF; border: none; width:500px;font: italic normal normal 16px/22px Georgia,    serif;">
'''Q2) Considering the above answers, are you convinced of the truthfulness of Billy Meier as a prophet?'''
</blockquote>
<br style="clear:both" />

===The Spiritual Information===

#Billy  Meier has not been in a position to benefit from the spirit teaching<ref>http://www.futureofmankind.co.uk/Billy_Meier/Spirit_Teaching</ref>.  He has been repeatedly attacked for his stance on religion. An expert  hoaxer would have simply fed public the comfort food and become  acceptable to a large majority of the target audience. Billy Meier did  the opposite – he published deeply controversial information. What could  have been the motive of a person who spoke against the madness of  religion since his early days of alleged contacts, and continue to do  so?
#He  continues to be an outcast in the UFO community and his case is least  heard. The UFO community fears Billy Meier because he and his  extraterrestrial friends rubbish all other claims of contacts,  ET-American Government joint bases, channeling, ascended masters, 5<sup>th</sup>  dimension, light-shower, light-workers, Sananda, Maitrayee, 2012 end of  the world, Reptilians, alien abduction and subsequent bizarre sexual  experiments, Chakras, etc. Accepting the possibility that Billy Meier's information could be truthful would mean abandoning  99.99% of materials that lurch in a standard New  Age/pseudo-spiritual/UFO website. What would a hoaxer looking to sell his material have done?
#His  stance on the overpopulation issue – a taboo subject, has brought him  no fame or favor. It especially offends the off-the-shelve religious  hardliner who consider reproducing as a God-given right and a gift from  God, and know-it-all human rights activists who consider reproducing a  human right, a.k.a. no strings attached. What would a super intelligent  hoaxer have done?
#He  published the deeply heretical Talmud Jmmanuel (ISBN 978-0971152335).  Prof. James Deardorff, after 20 years of research came to the conclusion  Talmud Jmmanuel was the source for the Gospel of Matthew and also  published a book: “Celestial Teachings: The Emergence of the True  Testament of Jmmanuel (Jesus)” (ISBN 978-0926524118). He based his  conclusion<ref>http://www.tjresearch.info/contents.htm</ref> after comparing passage-to-passage and provided compelling evidences. There  is no available research done by any Biblical scholar to prove the  contrary, but only baseless statements. How could Billy Meier have  doctored such a document which could present over 100 instances where,  in the words of Prof. Deardorff, “the arguments pointing to Matthean  dependence upon the TJ are seen to be difficult to reverse”, and that  too, without any conflicts and inconsistencies? 
#Last, but not the least, Billy Meier teaches about Creation. The below quotes about Creation are from Stimme der Wassermannzeit, No. 89 December 1993
#*"3.    The Universe is Creation's internal and external body."
#*"5.     Creation pervades everything and everything pervades Creation,  therefore forming oneness within itself. Within this oneness occur all  life and all of the evolution allotted to it."
#*In  other words, everything that exists is a part of Creation and is  encapsulated by it – for e.g. your body, people around you, your  thoughts, thoughts of other people around you, things that you can  perceive, things that you cannot perceive, the sun, the planets, other  sun, other planets, the computer or the iPhone you are using to access  this article, the building blocks of life, energy, radiation, the human  spirit, spirit of other life forms, and so on. Is not Creation one big,  fat, self-evident, on-the face truth that proves itself to us 24x7x365?  Can Creation be a hoax?

<blockquote style="margin-left: auto; margin-right:  auto;    text-align:center; background-color: #FFFFFF; border: none; width:500px;font: italic normal normal 16px/22px  Georgia,    serif;">
'''Q3) Considering the above answers, are you convinced of the truthfulness of the spiritual teaching?'''
</blockquote>
<br style="clear:both" />

==Calculate the mathematical probability of hoax or truth==

Here is a little exercise for those inclined to mathematics and statistics<ref>http://www.tjresearch.info/cumulate.htm</ref>: 

{| border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="5" align="center"
|- 
|f<sub>QN</sub> = (f<sub>Q1</sub>*f<sub>Q2</sub>*…f<sub>QN</sub>  ) / ((f<sub>Q1</sub>*f<sub>Q2</sub>*…f<sub>QN</sub>)+( (1-f<sub>Q1</sub>)+(1-f<sub>Q2</sub>)+… (1-f<sub>QN</sub>)) 
|(1)
|-
|f<sub>hoax</sub>= (f<sub>Q1</sub>*f<sub>Q2</sub>*f<sub>Q3</sub>  ) / ((f<sub>Q1</sub>*f<sub>Q2</sub>*f<sub>Q3</sub>)+( (1-f<sub>Q1</sub>)+(1-f<sub>Q2</sub>)+ (1-f<sub>Q3</sub>)) 
|(2)
|-
|f<sub>authentic</sub> = 1 -f<sub>hoax</sub>
|(3)
|-
|P<sub>authentic</sub>% = f<sub>authentic</sub> x 100%
|(4)
|}

Against,  each of the sub-questions, write down the approximate probability of an  answer that would imply Billy Meier to be a hoaxer (in fraction…0 for  100% authentic, .5 for unsure, maximum value 1 for 100% hoax, etc.); put  those values in formula (1) and calculate f<sub>Q1</sub>, f<sub>Q2</sub>, and f<sub>Q3</sub> for the first, second and third question respectively. Again apply f<sub>Q1</sub>, f<sub>Q2</sub>, and f<sub>Q3</sub> to formula (2) to get f<sub>hoax</sub>.  Then subtract the resultant value from 1, as in formula (3) and  multiply by 100, as in formula (4) to get the authenticity probability  of the Billy Meier case …Presto!

==Conclusion==

It  is important not to just blindly believe a theory or a story claimed to  be real. A theory put forward by someone can be confirmed by virtue of  its evidence - then it becomes knowledge<ref>http://www.futureofmankind.co.uk/Billy_Meier/Thoughts_about_%22Believing/Belief%22,_the_truth,_and_proving_the_authenticity_of_the_%22Meier_case%22</ref>.  Investigation, analysis, and subsequent putting of those evidences into  perspective always help to graduate oneself from the shadow of belief  to the light of knowledge. I urge the reader to do the same.

Peace in wisdom<br />
Subhabrata Mukhuti<br />
13.03.2010

==References==
<references />

==Further reading==
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